Mathematically, Obama Will Be The Nominee

News Type: Opinion — Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:56 PM EDT

Okay, so lets cut the drama. All that the news stations ever talk about nowadays is how the democratic race for the nominee is a statistical deadlock. So lets look at this "deadlock". According to the delegate count of CNN, the biggest perpetrator of this deadlock story, Obama is winning 1611 to 1480. Now remember, a candidate must secure 2025 delegates to be declared the nominee, and this is out of a total of 4048 undeclared delegates and superdelegates.

Stay with me here.

Obama's delegates and Clinton's delegates combined*

1611 + 1480 = 3091.

Total Delegates Minus Total Delegates Pledged to Each Campaign*

4048-3091= 957

Okay so as of right now there are 957 total delegates left, superdelegates and regular delegates combined. Here's the interesting part.

If Obama wins 43.3% pf the remaining delegates, he will have 2025 delegates, making him the presumptive nominee. So Obama doesn't even have to win half of the upcoming states and their delegates, and he can still be the nominee. And here is the best part. Obama is favored to win in the majority of upcoming primaries and caucases.

I guess it's not such a deadlock after all. The myth of a deadlock is exactly that, a myth.

*according to CNN

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7.6

3.0

{"commentId":1571447,"authorDomain":"xfs292"}

xfs292

Any disagreement?

{"commentId":1571447,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"xfs292"}

1 vote

#1 - Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:57 PM EDT

{"commentId":1571993,"authorDomain":"dannymcgee"}

Danny McGee

Yes: Biased individuals are not the best to be performing statistical and mathematical analysis. ;)

Don't get me wrong, I'm biased too. I want Obama to win as much as anybody. But even assuming that he'll win at least 43.3% of the remaining delegates is more than I'm comfortable with. I'll agree it appears to be in his favor and yes, the media is playing up the "o noez who's gonna win!!1" card way too much, but it's still too early to say with the sort of absolute certainty you're presenting that "Obama will be the nominee."

{"commentId":1571993,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"dannymcgee"}

2 votes

#1.1 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 2:12 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572369,"authorDomain":"eric-albert"}

Eric Albert

It was the corporate media that manipulated the phony choices, corporate and imperial hacks, Obama and Hillary by ignoring anti war candidates. Once they got two similar hacks, parallel supeficial opportunists, gender/race nonsense, they actually now find themselves in a bind having created this very mess through manipulation. This is what you get with phony debates, phony alternatives, phony democracy, a crisis of leadership caused by the corporate and impeiral elites of Amerikan Empire.

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#1.2 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:28 AM EDT

{"commentId":1573723,"authorDomain":"EPH289"}

EPH289

I also disagree. I don't personally care which way it goes but the biggest fallacy of your analysis is that the remaining primaries do not have enough committed delegates in them for either of the candidates to win out right. If Mr. Obama wins 100% of them in the remaining primaries, he is still short.

If both stay till the end, the super delegates will decide and right or wrong, they do not have an obligation to cast their votes based upon election results.

{"commentId":1573723,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"EPH289"}

2 votes

#1.3 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 1:28 PM EDT

{"commentId":1575922,"authorDomain":"CCS"}

Doc CeCe

Yeah, the superdelegates are included in the count of what's left. So basically, Obama needs 45% of them and 45% of the rest of the pledged delegates to win. But Hillary needs about 60%. That's a 20 pt margin. She hasn't done that yet in this election cycle. I will be more than surprised if she can pull that off.

{"commentId":1575922,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"CCS"}

2 votes

#1.4 - Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:18 AM EDT

{"commentId":1571636,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}

spiffie

The primary problem is that not all of the remaining delegates are pledged delegates. About 350 of the remaining are super-delegates. It's true that Obama could get close to the magic number if he does as expected over the next few months, but that still leaves it up to the super-delegates deciding the event at the convention, a situation most people are feeling uneasy about.

{"commentId":1571636,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"spiffie"}

7 votes

#2 - Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:14 PM EDT

{"commentId":1571807,"authorDomain":"xfs292"}

xfs292

heres the thing though. He has been rapidly catching up to her in superdelegates. I believe she only has 30 more superdelegates than he has. And what's-his-face, the big civil rights superdelegate, switched from hillary to obama. Hopefully more of that kind of behavior will continue.

{"commentId":1571807,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"xfs292"}

6 votes

#2.1 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:28 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572115,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

Robert Blevins - AB of Seattle

You may want to do a more in-depth review of the superdelagates, xfs292, only because it MAY come down to them at the convention.

Personally, all I ask is that the SD's go with the will of the people.

Big request, I know.

{"commentId":1572115,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

2 votes

#3 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:21 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572560,"authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

FDBryant3

Then what is point of having superdelegates. The whole point of the superdelegate is to be able to have party officials be able to have a say in the party nominee when there is no clear cut so called "will of the people" as represented by the pledged delegate count.

Ultimately, a superdelegates responsibility is the pick he or she thinks will make the best candidate for President whether or not that is in accordance with the "will of the people" (which of course if that had been clearly express would render the superdelegates moot).

{"commentId":1572560,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

3 votes

#3.1 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:42 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572417,"authorDomain":"nearing"}

nearing

Doesn't Edwards have a bunch of those delegates already? Did you factor this in?

{"commentId":1572417,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"nearing"}

3 votes

#4 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:44 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572568,"authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

FDBryant3

There is also the possibility that Michigan and Florida might get seated yet. The truth is though regardless of what happens because the delegates are assigned proportionally that neither candidate will have the necessary delegate count to claim the nomination. That is when the back room wheeling and dealing will begin.

{"commentId":1572568,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

2 votes

#4.1 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:46 AM EDT

{"commentId":1572995,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

Andy Min

Two things. First, the superdelegates shouldn't be counted in your states' totals. There are approximately 719 superdelegates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_Superdelegates%2C_2008). Now, there are only 238 left.

So according to this (which is probably faulty since I just did the calculations on the spur of the moment), it will be decided completely by the superdelegates.

Unless of course you counted the superdelegates in the totals that Obama and Hillary already have pledged to them. In which case my math is completely wrong and you shouldn't pay attention to it :-)

{"commentId":1572995,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

2 votes

#5 - Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:43 AM EDT

{"commentId":1575909,"authorDomain":"xfs292"}

xfs292

Andrew I actually was including the super delegates into the count

{"commentId":1575909,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"xfs292"}

2 votes

#5.1 - Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:07 AM EDT

{"commentId":1602593,"authorDomain":"thedagda"}

The Dagda

I have a question no one seems to be answering. If Michigan and Florida delegates are not seated, does not that lower the amount of votes needed to win the nomination? I believe the 2,025 figure cited often as the magic number is equal to 50 percent plus one of the total expected at the convention. Should Michigan and Florida not get their act together in time, wouldn't that move the total down? Don't the two states also lose their superdelegates?

So, if roughly 366 delegates and let's say 40 superdelegates from MI and FL (I don't know how many come from each state; is it just the Congresspeople and high state officials?) are removed from the voting pool, wouldn't that reduce the magic number by roughly 200, to about 1,825? Which would put Obama who is not at 1,611, a mere 214 delegates away from clinching it. Assuming he gets 45 percent of the delegates in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina (adding about 181 to Obama's total) that would put him only about 30 away. If his support holds at lower levels than he has done in smaller states, therefore, he would have clinched enough on or before the Puerto Rico primary, and that is assuming none of the heretofore unpledged superdelegates come his way, nor that John Edwards releases his delegates to Obama.

Anyone know if my math is wrong?

{"commentId":1602593,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"thedagda"}

2 votes

#6 - Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:42 PM EDT

{"commentId":1602973,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}

spiffie

2024 is the number without the MI and FL delegates. It's something like 2208 with them.

{"commentId":1602973,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"spiffie"}

3 votes

#6.1 - Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:00 PM EDT

{"commentId":1603288,"authorDomain":"thedagda"}

The Dagda

Oh. Thanks, spiffie. In the meantime, Michigan threw in the towel, so it's up to Florida.

{"commentId":1603288,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"thedagda"}

3 votes

#6.2 - Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:03 PM EDT

{"commentId":1603330,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}

spiffie

Florida threw in the towel a few days ago. It's almost hopeless at this point.

{"commentId":1603330,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"spiffie"}

4 votes

#6.3 - Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:22 PM EDT

{"commentId":1603429,"authorDomain":"thedagda"}

The Dagda

Was that the towel? I noticed a lot of throwing, but figured that's just the way Floridians communicate with each other.

{"commentId":1603429,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"thedagda"}

2 votes

#6.4 - Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:55 PM EDT

{"commentId":1603639,"authorDomain":"CCS"}

Doc CeCe

Lol, what's crazy is how people from Hillary's camp are trying to blame Obama for the lack of a re-vote. If they cared so much, they wouldn't have voted for the states to lose their delegates in the first place. And if they cared so much, they wouldn't be fighting so hard only in the last two weeks. Get real. The Clintons still haven't stepped into the 21st century when it's harder to have a short memory because everything is played over and over again on Google video and YouTube.

{"commentId":1603639,"threadId":"233761","contentId":"1362409","authorDomain":"CCS"}

3 votes

#6.5 - Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:13 AM EDT

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Mathematically, Obama Will Be The Nominee

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